6 generations from a
founding couple with all 'mates' from external randoms
except the cousin pairings
3rd generation cousin pairings 3.7%
4th gen 2.4%
5th gen 1.2%
6th gen 0.4%
Macro generates a pg0 file of random profiles to be called
later . Repeated xxxx times Generates 6 generations of
offspring 3 children each pairing with external random
profiles. All 729 are sorted and all 5 pair or more profiles
output. Also for each 729 columns 11 to 20 are swapped
for 1 to 10 and again sorted and >=5 pair matches output.
For 20 digit matches both match sorts tally of course.
Matches are mainly for siblings 3 in 100 runs of 729
' Generating 10 loci x2 profiles
' to be called on later
' 2 +3 +9 +27 +81 +243 = 365 = profiles
zz = 0
Dim ph(20)
Dim ps As String
Dim pg0(365, 20)
Dim pg1(1, 20)
Dim pg2(2, 20)
' initialising RNG
Randomize
a = 214013
c = 2531011
x0 = Timer
z = 2 ^ 24
Dim pg3(8, 20)
Dim pg4(26, 20)
Dim pg5(80, 20)
Dim pg6(242, 20)
Dim pg7(728, 20)
Open "sept29-7m.txt" For Output As #2
Open "sept29-7mb.txt" For Output As #3
Open "sept29-24" For Output As #24
Open "sept29-25" For Output As #25
Open "sept29-26" For Output As #26
Open "sept29-27" For Output As #27
For xx = 0 To 9
count9 = 0
count8 = 0
Open "sept29-0" For Output As #10
Open "sept29-1" For Output As #11
Open "sept29-2" For Output As #12
Open "sept29-3" For Output As #13
Open "sept29-4" For Output As #14
Open "sept29-5" For Output As #15
Open "sept29-6" For Output As #16
Open "sept29-7" For Output As #17
Open "sept29-7b" For Output As #18
For x = 0 To 364
For j = 0 To 1
' vWA
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.001 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.106 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.186 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.402 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.672 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.891 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.984 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 0.998 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 8
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 2 To 3
' THO1
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.002 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.243 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.437 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.545 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.546 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.686 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.99 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 4 To 5
' D8
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.018 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.031 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.125 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.191 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.334 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.667 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.876 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 0.964 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) < 0.995 Then ph(j) = 8
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 9
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 6 To 7
' FGA
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.025 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.081 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.224 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.411 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.576 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.587 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.726 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 0.872 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) < 0.947 Then ph(j) = 8
If ph(j) < 0.982 Then ph(j) = 9
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 0
' 1.8% not generated
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 8 To 9
' D21
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.031 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.191 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.417 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.675 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.702 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.771 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.864 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 0.882 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) < 0.972 Then ph(j) = 8
If ph(j) < 0.994 Then ph(j) = 9
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 0
' 0.5% not generated
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 10 To 11
' D18
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.012 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.151 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.276 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.44 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.585 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.722 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.837 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 0.917 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) < 0.958 Then ph(j) = 8
If ph(j) < 0.975 Then ph(j) = 9
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 0
' 2.5% not generated
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 12 To 13
' D2S1338
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.037 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.222 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.309 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.419 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.557 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.589 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.613 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 0.725 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) < 0.867 Then ph(j) = 8
If ph(j) < 0.978 Then ph(j) = 9
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 0
' 2.2% not generated
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 14 To 15
' D16
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.019 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.148 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.202 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.491 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.779 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.965 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.994 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
For j = 16 To 17
' D19
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.087 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.309 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.322 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.704 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.713 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.896 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.934 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 0.975 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) < 0.992 Then ph(j) = 8
If ph(j) < 0.997 Then ph(j) = 9
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 0
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
' 0.3% not generated
Next j
For j = 18 To 19
' D3
' RNG
temp = x0 * a + c
temp = temp / z
x1 = (temp - Fix(temp)) * z
x0 = x1
phj = x1 / z
ph(j) = phj
If ph(j) < 0.001 Then ph(j) = 11
If ph(j) < 0.007 Then ph(j) = 1
If ph(j) < 0.139 Then ph(j) = 2
If ph(j) < 0.404 Then ph(j) = 3
If ph(j) < 0.651 Then ph(j) = 4
If ph(j) < 0.846 Then ph(j) = 5
If ph(j) < 0.987 Then ph(j) = 6
If ph(j) < 1 Then ph(j) = 7
If ph(j) > 10 Then ph(j) = 0
Next j
' directing pairs
For j = 0 To 18 Step 2
If ph(j + 1) < ph(j) Then
jjj = ph(j)
ph(j) = ph(j + 1)
ph(j + 1) = jjj
End If
pg0(x, j) = ph(j)
pg0(x, j + 1) = ph(j + 1)
Next j
Write #10, pg0(x, 0) & pg0(x, 1) & pg0(x, 2) & pg0(x, 3) & pg0(x, 4) & pg0(x, 5) & pg0(x, 6) & pg0(x, 7) & pg0(x, 8) & pg0(x, 9) & pg0(x, 10) & pg0(x, 11) & pg0(x, 12) & pg0(x, 13) & pg0(x, 14) & pg0(x, 15) & pg0(x, 16) & pg0(x, 17) & pg0(x, 18) & pg0(x, 19)
Next x
' generating adam and eve
For m = 0 To 1
For k = 0 To 19
pg1(m, k) = pg0(m, k)
Next k
Write #11, pg1(m, 0) & pg1(m, 1) & pg1(m, 2) & pg1(m, 3) & pg1(m, 4) & pg1(m, 5) & pg1(m, 6) & pg1(m, 7) & pg1(m, 8) & pg1(m, 9) & pg1(m, 10) & pg1(m, 11) & pg1(m, 12) & pg1(m, 13) & pg1(m, 14) & pg1(m, 15) & pg1(m, 16) & pg1(m, 17) & pg1(m, 18) & pg1(m, 19)
Next m
' first generation of 3 offspring
' 4 way random to select one of
' 2 alleles from adam and one of 2 from eve
' 3 times over
For m = 0 To 2
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
pg2(m, k) = pg1(0, k)
pg2(m, k + 1) = pg1(1, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg2(m, k) = pg1(0, k)
pg2(m, k + 1) = pg1(1, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg2(m, k) = pg1(0, k + 1)
pg2(m, k + 1) = pg1(1, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg2(m, k) = pg1(0, k + 1)
pg2(m, k + 1) = pg1(1, k + 1)
End If
Next k
' directing pairs
For j = 0 To 18 Step 2
If pg2(m, j + 1) < pg2(m, j) Then
jjj = pg2(m, j)
pg2(m, j) = pg2(m, j + 1)
pg2(m, j + 1) = jjj
End If
Next j
Write #12, pg2(m, 0) & pg2(m, 1) & pg2(m, 2) & pg2(m, 3) & pg2(m, 4) & pg2(m, 5) & pg2(m, 6) & pg2(m, 7) & pg2(m, 8) & pg2(m, 9) & pg2(m, 10) & pg2(m, 11) & pg2(m, 12) & pg2(m, 13) & pg2(m, 14) & pg2(m, 15) & pg2(m, 16) & pg2(m, 17) & pg2(m, 18) & pg2(m, 19)
Next m
' second generation of 3 offspring of each pg2 parent
' 4 way random to select one of
' 2 alleles from each offsping and
' one of 2 from a random parent
For mm = 0 To 6 Step 3
' mm 1,2 or3 rd child
For m = 0 To 2
' m parent
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
' mm+m+2 (2 as 2 called up previously in pg0)
pg3(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 2, k)
pg3(mm + m, k + 1) = pg2(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg3(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 2, k)
pg3(mm + m, k + 1) = pg2(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg3(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 2, k + 1)
pg3(mm + m, k + 1) = pg2(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg3(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 2, k + 1)
pg3(mm + m, k + 1) = pg2(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
' directing pairs
For j = 0 To 18 Step 2
If pg3(mm + m, j + 1) < pg3(mm + m, j) Then
jjj = pg3(mm + m, j)
pg3(mm + m, j) = pg3(mm + m, j + 1)
pg3(mm + m, j + 1) = jjj
End If
Next j
Write #13, pg3(mm + m, 0) & pg3(mm + m, 1) & pg3(mm + m, 2) & pg3(mm + m, 3) & pg3(mm + m, 4) & pg3(mm + m, 5) & pg3(mm + m, 6) & pg3(mm + m, 7) & pg3(mm + m, 8) & pg3(mm + m, 9) & pg3(mm + m, 10) & pg3(mm + m, 11) & pg3(mm + m, 12) & pg3(mm + m, 13) & pg3(mm + m, 14) & pg3(mm + m, 15) & pg3(mm + m, 16) & pg3(mm + m, 17) & pg3(mm + m, 18) & pg3(mm + m, 19)
Next m
Next mm
' third generation of 3 offspring of each pg3 parent
' 4 way random to select one of
' 2 alleles from each parent and
' 2 from a random parent
For mm = 0 To 18 Step 9
For m = 0 To 8
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
' the + as first 2 + 3used previously
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 5, k)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 5, k)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 5, k + 1)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 5, k + 1)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
' cousin marriage on 27th mating
rrr = Rnd * 6
If mm + m = 26 Then
Write #24, mm + m, pg4(mm + m, 0) & pg4(mm + m, 1) & pg4(mm + m, 2) & pg4(mm + m, 3) & pg4(mm + m, 4) & pg4(mm + m, 5) & pg4(mm + m, 6) & pg4(mm + m, 7) & pg4(mm + m, 8) & pg4(mm + m, 9) & pg4(mm + m, 10) & pg4(mm + m, 11) & pg4(mm + m, 12) & pg4(mm + m, 13) & pg4(mm + m, 14) & pg4(mm + m, 15) & pg4(mm + m, 16) & pg4(mm + m, 17) & pg4(mm + m, 18) & pg4(mm + m, 19)
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
yy = 7
If rrr < 5 Then yy = 6
If rrr < 4 Then yy = 4
If rrr < 3 Then yy = 3
If rrr < 2 Then yy = 1
If rrr < 1 Then yy = 0
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg3(yy, k)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg3(yy, k)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg3(yy, k + 1)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg4(mm + m, k) = pg3(yy, k + 1)
pg4(mm + m, k + 1) = pg3(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
Write #24, mm + m, pg4(mm + m, 0) & pg4(mm + m, 1) & pg4(mm + m, 2) & pg4(mm + m, 3) & pg4(mm + m, 4) & pg4(mm + m, 5) & pg4(mm + m, 6) & pg4(mm + m, 7) & pg4(mm + m, 8) & pg4(mm + m, 9) & pg4(mm + m, 10) & pg4(mm + m, 11) & pg4(mm + m, 12) & pg4(mm + m, 13) & pg4(mm + m, 14) & pg4(mm + m, 15) & pg4(mm + m, 16) & pg4(mm + m, 17) & pg4(mm + m, 18) & pg4(mm + m, 19)
End If
' directing pairs
For j = 0 To 18 Step 2
If pg4(mm + m, j + 1) < pg4(mm + m, j) Then
jjj = pg4(mm + m, j)
pg4(mm + m, j) = pg4(mm + m, j + 1)
pg4(mm + m, j + 1) = jjj
End If
Next j
Write #14, pg4(mm + m, 0) & pg4(mm + m, 1) & pg4(mm + m, 2) & pg4(mm + m, 3) & pg4(mm + m, 4) & pg4(mm + m, 5) & pg4(mm + m, 6) & pg4(mm + m, 7) & pg4(mm + m, 8) & pg4(mm + m, 9) & pg4(mm + m, 10) & pg4(mm + m, 11) & pg4(mm + m, 12) & pg4(mm + m, 13) & pg4(mm + m, 14) & pg4(mm + m, 15) & pg4(mm + m, 16) & pg4(mm + m, 17) & pg4(mm + m, 18) & pg4(mm + m, 19)
Next m
Next mm
' fourth generation of 3 offspring of each pg4 parent
' 4 way random to select one of
' 2 alleles from each parent and
' 2 from a random parent
For mm = 0 To 54 Step 27
For m = 0 To 26
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
' the +14 as first 2 +3+ 9 used previously
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 14, k)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 14, k)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 14, k + 1)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 14, k + 1)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
' cousin marriage on 40th mating
rrr1 = Rnd * 6
rrr2 = Rnd * 6
If mm + m = 40 Or mm + m = 80 Then
Write #25, mm + m, pg5(mm + m, 0) & pg5(mm + m, 1) & pg5(mm + m, 2) & pg5(mm + m, 3) & pg5(mm + m, 4) & pg5(mm + m, 5) & pg5(mm + m, 6) & pg5(mm + m, 7) & pg5(mm + m, 8) & pg5(mm + m, 9) & pg5(mm + m, 10) & pg5(mm + m, 11) & pg5(mm + m, 12) & pg5(mm + m, 13) & pg5(mm + m, 14) & pg5(mm + m, 15) & pg5(mm + m, 16) & pg5(mm + m, 17) & pg5(mm + m, 18) & pg5(mm + m, 19)
If mm + m = 40 Then rrr = rrr1
If mm + m = 40 Then rrr = rrr2
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
yy = 19
If rrr < 5 Then yy = 25
If rrr < 4 Then yy = 24
If rrr < 3 Then yy = 23
If rrr < 2 Then yy = 21
If rrr < 1 Then yy = 20
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg4(yy, k)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg4(yy, k)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg4(yy, k + 1)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg5(mm + m, k) = pg4(yy, k + 1)
pg5(mm + m, k + 1) = pg4(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
Write #25, mm + m, pg5(mm + m, 0) & pg5(mm + m, 1) & pg5(mm + m, 2) & pg5(mm + m, 3) & pg5(mm + m, 4) & pg5(mm + m, 5) & pg5(mm + m, 6) & pg5(mm + m, 7) & pg5(mm + m, 8) & pg5(mm + m, 9) & pg5(mm + m, 10) & pg5(mm + m, 11) & pg5(mm + m, 12) & pg5(mm + m, 13) & pg5(mm + m, 14) & pg5(mm + m, 15) & pg5(mm + m, 16) & pg5(mm + m, 17) & pg5(mm + m, 18) & pg5(mm + m, 19)
End If
' directing pairs
For j = 0 To 18 Step 2
If pg5(mm + m, j + 1) < pg5(mm + m, j) Then
jjj = pg5(mm + m, j)
pg5(mm + m, j) = pg5(mm + m, j + 1)
pg5(mm + m, j + 1) = jjj
End If
Next j
Write #15, pg5(mm + m, 0) & pg5(mm + m, 1) & pg5(mm + m, 2) & pg5(mm + m, 3) & pg5(mm + m, 4) & pg5(mm + m, 5) & pg5(mm + m, 6) & pg5(mm + m, 7) & pg5(mm + m, 8) & pg5(mm + m, 9) & pg5(mm + m, 10) & pg5(mm + m, 11) & pg5(mm + m, 12) & pg5(mm + m, 13) & pg5(mm + m, 14) & pg5(mm + m, 15) & pg5(mm + m, 16) & pg5(mm + m, 17) & pg5(mm + m, 18) & pg5(mm + m, 19)
Next m
Next mm
' fifth generation of 3 offspring of each pg5 parent
' 4 way random to select one of
' 2 alleles from each parent and
' 2 from a random parent
For mm = 0 To 162 Step 81
For m = 0 To 80
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 41, k)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 41, k)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 41, k + 1)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 41, k + 1)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
' cousin marriage on 79th mating
rrr = Rnd * 6
If m = 79 Then
Write #26, mm + m, pg6(mm + m, 0) & pg6(mm + m, 1) & pg6(mm + m, 2) & pg6(mm + m, 3) & pg6(mm + m, 4) & pg6(mm + m, 5) & pg6(mm + m, 6) & pg6(mm + m, 7) & pg6(mm + m, 8) & pg6(mm + m, 9) & pg6(mm + m, 10) & pg6(mm + m, 11) & pg6(mm + m, 12) & pg6(mm + m, 13) & pg6(mm + m, 14) & pg6(mm + m, 15) & pg6(mm + m, 16) & pg6(mm + m, 17) & pg6(mm + m, 18) & pg6(mm + m, 19)
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
yy = 77
If rrr < 5 Then yy = 75
If rrr < 4 Then yy = 73
If rrr < 3 Then yy = 71
If rrr < 2 Then yy = 69
If rrr < 1 Then yy = 67
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg5(yy, k)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg5(yy, k)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg5(yy, k + 1)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg6(mm + m, k) = pg5(yy, k + 1)
pg6(mm + m, k + 1) = pg5(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
Write #26, mm + m, pg6(mm + m, 0) & pg6(mm + m, 1) & pg6(mm + m, 2) & pg6(mm + m, 3) & pg6(mm + m, 4) & pg6(mm + m, 5) & pg6(mm + m, 6) & pg6(mm + m, 7) & pg6(mm + m, 8) & pg6(mm + m, 9) & pg6(mm + m, 10) & pg6(mm + m, 11) & pg6(mm + m, 12) & pg6(mm + m, 13) & pg6(mm + m, 14) & pg6(mm + m, 15) & pg6(mm + m, 16) & pg6(mm + m, 17) & pg6(mm + m, 18) & pg6(mm + m, 19)
End If
' directing pairs
For j = 0 To 18 Step 2
If pg6(mm + m, j + 1) < pg6(mm + m, j) Then
jjj = pg6(mm + m, j)
pg6(mm + m, j) = pg6(mm + m, j + 1)
pg6(mm + m, j + 1) = jjj
End If
Next j
Write #16, pg6(mm + m, 0) & pg6(mm + m, 1) & pg6(mm + m, 2) & pg6(mm + m, 3) & pg6(mm + m, 4) & pg6(mm + m, 5) & pg6(mm + m, 6) & pg6(mm + m, 7) & pg6(mm + m, 8) & pg6(mm + m, 9) & pg6(mm + m, 10) & pg6(mm + m, 11) & pg6(mm + m, 12) & pg6(mm + m, 13) & pg6(mm + m, 14) & pg6(mm + m, 15) & pg6(mm + m, 16) & pg6(mm + m, 17) & pg6(mm + m, 18) & pg6(mm + m, 19)
Next m
Next mm
' sixth generation of 3 offspring of each pg6 parent
' 4 way random to select one of
' 2 alleles from each parent and
' 2 from a random parent
For mm = 0 To 486 Step 243
For m = 0 To 242
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 122, k)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 122, k)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 122, k + 1)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg0(m + 122, k + 1)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
' cousin marriage on 79th mating
rrr = Rnd * 6
If m = 79 Then
Write #27, mm + m, pg7(mm + m, 0) & pg7(mm + m, 1) & pg7(mm + m, 2) & pg7(mm + m, 3) & pg7(mm + m, 4) & pg7(mm + m, 5) & pg7(mm + m, 6) & pg7(mm + m, 7) & pg7(mm + m, 8) & pg7(mm + m, 9) & pg7(mm + m, 10) & pg7(mm + m, 11) & pg7(mm + m, 12) & pg7(mm + m, 13) & pg7(mm + m, 14) & pg7(mm + m, 15) & pg7(mm + m, 16) & pg7(mm + m, 17) & pg7(mm + m, 18) & pg7(mm + m, 19)
For k = 0 To 18 Step 2
rr = Rnd
yy = 76
If rrr < 5 Then yy = 74
If rrr < 4 Then yy = 72
If rrr < 3 Then yy = 70
If rrr < 2 Then yy = 69
If rrr < 1 Then yy = 68
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg6(yy, k)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k)
If rr < 0.75 Then
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg6(yy, k)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k + 1)
End If
If rr < 0.5 Then
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg6(yy, k + 1)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k)
End If
If rr < 0.25 Then
pg7(mm + m, k) = pg6(yy, k + 1)
pg7(mm + m, k + 1) = pg6(m, k + 1)
End If
Next k
Write #27, mm + m, pg7(mm + m, 0) & pg7(mm + m, 1) & pg7(mm + m, 2) & pg7(mm + m, 3) & pg7(mm + m, 4) & pg7(mm + m, 5) & pg7(mm + m, 6) & pg7(mm + m, 7) & pg7(mm + m, 8) & pg7(mm + m, 9) & pg7(mm + m, 10) & pg7(mm + m, 11) & pg7(mm + m, 12) & pg7(mm + m, 13) & pg7(mm + m, 14) & pg7(mm + m, 15) & pg7(mm + m, 16) & pg7(mm + m, 17) & pg7(mm + m, 18) & pg7(mm + m, 19)
End If
' directing pairs
For j = 0 To 18 Step 2
If pg7(mm + m, j + 1) < pg7(mm + m, j) Then
jjj = pg7(mm + m, j)
pg7(mm + m, j) = pg7(mm + m, j + 1)
pg7(mm + m, j + 1) = jjj
End If
Next j
Write #17, pg7(mm + m, 0) & pg7(mm + m, 1) & pg7(mm + m, 2) & pg7(mm + m, 3) & pg7(mm + m, 4) & pg7(mm + m, 5) & pg7(mm + m, 6) & pg7(mm + m, 7) & pg7(mm + m, 8) & pg7(mm + m, 9) & pg7(mm + m, 10) & pg7(mm + m, 11) & pg7(mm + m, 12) & pg7(mm + m, 13) & pg7(mm + m, 14) & pg7(mm + m, 15) & pg7(mm + m, 16) & pg7(mm + m, 17) & pg7(mm + m, 18) & pg7(mm + m, 19) & zz & xx & zz & mm & zz & m
' the clutter at the end is to check the final result for sibling or other matches
' remove the ends of these #17 and #18 writes for clean 20 digit profiles
Write #18, pg7(mm + m, 10) & pg7(mm + m, 11) & pg7(mm + m, 12) & pg7(mm + m, 13) & pg7(mm + m, 14) & pg7(mm + m, 15) & pg7(mm + m, 16) & pg7(mm + m, 17) & pg7(mm + m, 18) & pg7(mm + m, 19) & pg7(mm + m, 0) & pg7(mm + m, 1) & pg7(mm + m, 2) & pg7(mm + m, 3) & pg7(mm + m, 4) & pg7(mm + m, 5) & pg7(mm + m, 6) & pg7(mm + m, 7) & pg7(mm + m, 8) & pg7(mm + m, 9) & zz & xx & zz & mm & zz & m
Next m
Next mm
Close #10
Close #11
Close #12
Close #13
Close #14
Close #15
Close #16
Close #17
Close #18
' sort contents of file sept29-7
Documents.Open FileName:="sept29-7", ConfirmConversions:=False, ReadOnly:= _
False, AddToRecentFiles:=False, PasswordDocument:="", PasswordTemplate:= _
"", Revert:=False, WritePasswordDocument:="", WritePasswordTemplate:="", _
Format:=wdOpenFormatAuto
Selection.Sort ExcludeHeader:=False, FieldNumber:="Paragraphs", _
SortFieldType:=wdSortFieldAlphanumeric, SortOrder:=wdSortOrderAscending, _
FieldNumber2:="", SortFieldType2:=wdSortFieldAlphanumeric, SortOrder2:= _
wdSortOrderAscending, FieldNumber3:="", SortFieldType3:= _
wdSortFieldAlphanumeric, SortOrder3:=wdSortOrderAscending, Separator:= _
wdSortSeparateByTabs, SortColumn:=False, CaseSensitive:=False, LanguageID _
:=wdLanguageNone
ActiveDocument.SaveAs FileName:="sept29-7.txt", FileFormat:=wdFormatText, _
LockComments:=False, Password:="", AddToRecentFiles:=True, WritePassword _
:="", ReadOnlyRecommended:=False, EmbedTrueTypeFonts:=False, _
SaveNativePictureFormat:=False, SaveFormsData:=False, SaveAsAOCELetter:= _
False
ActiveWindow.Close
' Find matching pairs in 10 digits
' xxxx is count =
xxxx = 729
bb$ = "0"
count1 = 0
Open "sept29-7.txt" For Input As #1
' change the 12 in the #2 file name above and
' the Left function below to suit number of matches
xxxx = xxxx - 1
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 10)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
Write #2, ps, pps
count1 = count1 + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
pps = ps
Next x
If count1 > 0 Then
' Write #2, xx, count1
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 12 digits
bb$ = "0"
count2 = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 12)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #2, "twelve", ps, pps
count2 = count2 + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
pps = ps
Next x
If count2 > 0 Then
' Write #2, xx, count2
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 14 digits
bb$ = "0"
count3 = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 14)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #2, ps
count3 = count3 + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count3 > 0 Then
' Write #2, xx, count3
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 16 digits
bb$ = "0"
count4 = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 16)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #2, ps
count4 = count4 + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count4 > 0 Then
' Write #2, xx, count4
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 18 digits
bb$ = "0"
count5 = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 6)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #2, ps
count5 = count5 + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count5 > 0 Then
' Write #2, xx, count5
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 20 digits
bb$ = "0"
count6 = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 8)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #2, ps
count6 = count6 + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count6 > 0 Then
' Write #2, xx, count6
End If
count1t = count1t + count1
count2t = count2t + count2
count3t = count3t + count3
count4t = count4t + count4
count5t = count5t + count5
count6t = count6t + count6
Close #1
' sort split contents of file sept29-7b
Documents.Open FileName:="sept29-7b", ConfirmConversions:=False, ReadOnly:= _
False, AddToRecentFiles:=False, PasswordDocument:="", PasswordTemplate:= _
"", Revert:=False, WritePasswordDocument:="", WritePasswordTemplate:="", _
Format:=wdOpenFormatAuto
Selection.Sort ExcludeHeader:=False, FieldNumber:="Paragraphs", _
SortFieldType:=wdSortFieldAlphanumeric, SortOrder:=wdSortOrderAscending, _
FieldNumber2:="", SortFieldType2:=wdSortFieldAlphanumeric, SortOrder2:= _
wdSortOrderAscending, FieldNumber3:="", SortFieldType3:= _
wdSortFieldAlphanumeric, SortOrder3:=wdSortOrderAscending, Separator:= _
wdSortSeparateByTabs, SortColumn:=False, CaseSensitive:=False, LanguageID _
:=wdLanguageNone
ActiveDocument.SaveAs FileName:="sept29-7b.txt", FileFormat:=wdFormatText, _
LockComments:=False, Password:="", AddToRecentFiles:=True, WritePassword _
:="", ReadOnlyRecommended:=False, EmbedTrueTypeFonts:=False, _
SaveNativePictureFormat:=False, SaveFormsData:=False, SaveAsAOCELetter:= _
False
ActiveWindow.Close
' Find matching pairs in 10 digits
' xxxx is count =
bb$ = "0"
count1b = 0
Open "sept29-7b.txt" For Input As #1
' change the 12 in the #3 file name above and
' the Left function below to suit number of matches
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 10)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
Write #3, ps, pps
count1b = count1b + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
pps = ps
Next x
If count1b > 0 Then
' Write #3, xx, count1b
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7b.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 12 digits
bb$ = "0"
count2b = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 12)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #3, "twelve", ps, pps
count2b = count2b + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
pps = ps
Next x
If count2b > 0 Then
' Write #3, xx, count2b
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7b.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 14 digits
bb$ = "0"
count3b = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 14)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #3, ps
count3b = count3b + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count3b > 0 Then
' Write #3, xx, count3b
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7b.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 16 digits
bb$ = "0"
count4b = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 16)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #3, ps
count4b = count4b + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count4b > 0 Then
' Write #3, xx, count4b
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7b.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 6 digits
bb$ = "0"
count5b = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 6)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #3, ps
count5b = count5b + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count5b > 0 Then
' Write #3, xx, count5
End If
Close #1
Open "sept29-7b.txt" For Input As #1
' Find matching pairs in 8 digits
bb$ = "0"
count6b = 0
For x = 0 To xxxx
Input #1, ps
aa$ = Left(ps, 8)
If aa$ = bb$ Then
' Write #3, ps
count6b = count6b + 1
End If
bb$ = aa$
Next x
If count6b > 0 Then
' Write #3, xx, count6b
End If
count1tb = count1tb + count1b
count2tb = count2tb + count2b
count3tb = count3tb + count3b
count4tb = count4tb + count4b
count5tb = count5tb + count5b
count6tb = count6tb + count6b
Close #1
Next xx
Write #2, count5t, count6t, count1t, count2t, count3t, count4t
Write #3, count5tb, count6tb, count1tb, count2tb, count3tb, count4tb
Close #2
Close #3
Close #24
Close #25
Close #26
To count individual allele matches
Dim c(20)
Dim d(20)
Dim ct(1000)
Dim ps As String
Dim pt As String
xxxx =
count1 = 0
count2 = 0
count3 = 0
count4 = 0
count5 = 0
count6 = 0
count7 = 0
count8 = 0
count9 = 0
count10 = 0
Open "sept29-7m.txt" For Input As #1
Open "test7m.txt" For Output As #2
For x = 1 To xxxx
flag2 = 0
Input #1, ps, pt
For j = 11 To 20
c(j) = Mid(ps, j, 1)
d(j) = Mid(pt, j, 1)
Next j
' the 'm' count added to the profile is suggestive
' of being siblings if the same
' check further as only final digit eg 221 and 81
e = Right(ps, 2)
f = Right(pt, 2)
If e <> f Then flag2 = 1
Count = 0
For j = 11 To 19 Step 2
flag = 0
If c(j) = d(j) Or c(j) = d(j + 1) Then
Count = Count + 1
flag = flag + 1
End If
If c(j + 1) = d(j) Or c(j + 1) = d(j + 1) Then
Count = Count + 1
flag = flag + 1
End If
If c(j) = c(j + 1) And d(j) <> d(j + 1) And flag = 2 Then Count = Count - 1
Next j
If Count = 1 Then count1 = count1 + 1
If Count = 2 Then count2 = count2 + 1
If Count = 3 Then count3 = count3 + 1
If Count = 4 Then count4 = count4 + 1
If Count = 5 Then count5 = count5 + 1
If Count = 6 Then count6 = count6 + 1
If Count = 7 Then count7 = count7 + 1
If Count = 8 Then count8 = count8 + 1
If Count = 9 Then count9 = count9 + 1
If Count = 10 Then count10 = count10 + 1
If Count = 10 And flag2 = 1 Then flag2 = 2
' non sibling matches when flag2 = 2
Write #2, count1, count2, count3, count4, count5, count6, count7, count8, count9, count10, flag2, ps
Next x
Close #1
Close #2
End Sub
The following postings of developements to usenet
group uk.legal
postscipt to previous - the word i was looking
for, for totally independent 'profiles' - parthenogenesis.
My next simulation will be for co-ancestry.
For the moment ignoring sexes,external (to 'family') co-ancestry,
internal inbreeding,child deaths ,infertility etc, and some lost multiple pairs.
Any results will be on the conservative side.
Randomly generate,using the same generator as before,
2 x 20 'profiles' of directed numbers
and save as 'Adam' and 'Eve' for later reference
These 2 are 'mated' 3 times
Each of these 3 is 'mated' with a random external mate.
Repeated another 3 times giving 3^5 = 243 profiles.
Sort just the 243
Check for matching in 12,14,16,18,20 'alleles'
If ,say, first 12 match and last 2 match it will only
be recorded as a 12 match,not 14 match.
Save all matches as full 20 numbers along with
cumulative match counts.
Then to pick up some otherwise lost matches
Swap 11-20 alleles with 1-10 of each profile
Resort all 243 ,test for matches and save
Repeat whole process ,all randomly generated afresh,
perhaps 100 times to guage what
sort of numbers result.
I may change the sort structure as order
1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20
Eventually repeat perhaps 100,000 times and see if
there is any 20 loci matches in any 243 sets.
I have placed my co-ancestry macro,
as it stands ,so far, on
http://www.nutteing2.freeservers.com/dnas2.htm
for anyone wishing to check it - especially
whether any errors in the representative output.
The output looks very random but because of
the proponderance of 6s and 7s in columns 5 to 8
of Adam & Eve(a&e) there is still a proponderence
3 generations later.
I've yet to find a working value for the amount
of cousin or second cousin marriages in the uk
over 5 generations.
Pregnancies due to incest as such are probably too
rare to include. I have some UK and German data
on that ,reported incest 1951 to 1978 between 18 and 49
per year in 6 million population and about 300 per
year in 50 million population. And between 9 and 20%
leading to pregnancy. So even multiplying by 10 for unreported
cases still very low.
I've actually expanded to 5 generations ,sorted and tested 243 for
matches . Just 2 off 8 loci matches with no obvious relation
to the a&e profiles. Two areas to go next is multiple repeats
of this 5 generation routine and test for number of 10 loci matches
each time.
Also work out a routine to meld adjascent north,east,south and west ,
similar family groups, randomly called to mate instead of totally
random 'mates'. Starting with 5 parthegenic isolated families
like this first family.
I will probably have to construct a macro to check
for matches for any of all 20 alleles
of all profiles with either adam or eve profile.
Some of the yahoo forensic lot are in a tizz now because 2
of their number thought the group was totally private
, not open to all and sundry, as far as viewing their messages.
I've added cousin 'marriages' to my 5 generation
simulation otherwise all external 'mates'
are purely independent /random
No cousins at all for first 1,500 runs (36 minutes for 1500) producing
243 fifth generation each run,all runs starting
from scratch.
3 (6 digit),4 loci,5 loci,6 loci ,7 loci matches
15,094 ; 586 ; 31 ; 2 ; 0
including cousin marriages (1 in 27 ) in third generation results
15,245 ; 611 ; 41 ; 4 ; 0
including cousin marriages, 1in 27 in 3rd, and 1 in 40 in 4th generation
14,808 ; 607 ; 51 ; 4 ; 1
No i've no idea why the 3 and 4 loci matches have
decreased.
Next will include 1 in 79 of the 5th generation
Bear in mind for ,say, the 7 loci match if 8th was a mismatch
but 9 and 10 pairs matched it would only pick up 7.
Info from uk.genealogy group etc
About 2.7% marriages pre-1837 in Berkshire,all classes, were cousin marriages
And for the English nobs
0.3% of marriages in 1920s
1.1% for 1890s
I have a working macro that generates 6 generations from a
founding couple with all 'mates' from external randoms
except the cousin pairings mentioned before
3rd generation cousin pairings 3.7%
4th gen 2.4%
5th gen 1.2%
6th gen 0.4%
Pair matching for 1000 runs of 6 generations (1 hour 20 mins)
produces for 6,8,10,12,14,16 allele pair matches
73631,3057,189,8,1,0 and also swapping end for end
11-20 with 1-10 of each profile,sorting and pair matching
17077,1672,132,9,1,0
But another macro for all >=5 matched adjascent pairs
a routine to inspect and count individual alleles
above numbers 1 to 10 giving for
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
29,39,59,21,20,9,4,2,1,0
so one 19 allele match
"34125534131715351133" and "34125534131714351133"
And for the end-over-end and checking
12,24,36,25,16,11,2,1,1,0
so one 19 allele match
"66664523381314333735" and "26664523381314333735"
There are other missed partial matches because only
selecting first 10 or last 10 then individually checking
converted to standard in both senses,second pair 10 for 10 swapped back to normal
(16,17)(6,7)(13,13)(21,22)(28,30)(12,18)(17,21)(11,13)(13,13)(15,15)
(16,17)(6,7)(13,13)(21,22)(28,30)(12,18)(17,20)(11,13)(13,13)(15,15)
(19,19)(9.3,9.3)(12,13)(20,21)(30,32.2)(12,14)(17,20)(11,11)(14,16)(15,17)
(15,19)(9.3,9.3)(12,13)(20,21)(30,32.2)(12,14)(17,20)(11,11)(14,16)(15,17)
1000 runs of 729 6th generation is 729,000 profiles.
How many runs to get a single 20 allele match.?
I've not factored in any extended 'families' to feed into each
of these 729 family trees, each one is generated afresh
from a new random founding pair.
For the number of relatives to one person in terms of common
ancestor pairs ,3 children each family ,excluding cousin pairings
seems to be
second generation 3x1 + 1 [your own 2 pairs of grandparents( one common) and
the other 2 pairs of grandparents of your 6 cousins]
third generation 9x2 +2
fourth gen 27x4 +4
fifth gen 81x8 +8
sixth generation 243x16 + 16 = 3904
So am i right in thinking there is 3904 x 729 people (2.846016 million)
possible people linked to one individual with all the other offspring
of all these ancestors in common,just over 6 generations. So a run of 3904 instead of 1000
for all possible people with one ancestor pair in common .
If that is the case and i assume a high probability of a 3904
run producing one full 10 loci ,20 digit, match then you could say
without any further inter-relatedness from external input
then everyone is likely to have one match in their extended linkage.
All people who have a blood-line link to yourself from one ancestor pair
sharing a blood-line link forward to one other person.
It looks like a four-hour run is required and
some more scribbling on paper to check the common ancestor factor
of {(2^n)/4}{1+3^(n-1)} for n generations
14 pairs of 19 'allele' matches testing all 729, 6th generation offspring
for 10,096 pairs of ancestors. May be more as only tested for first or last
5 pairs of adjascent matches before testing for single matches.
I've given up trying to find a 20 digit match.
These results are effectively halved because male/female taken out of the
processing.
(16,17)(6,7)(13,13)(21,22)(28,30)(12,18)(17,21)(11,13)(13,13)(15,15)
(16,17)(6,7)(13,13)(21,22)(28,30)(12,18)(17,20)(11,13)(13,13)(15,15)
(19,19)(9.3,9.3)(12,13)(20,21)(30,32.2)(12,14)(17,20)(11,11)(14,16)(15,17)
(15,19)(9.3,9.3)(12,13)(20,21)(30,32.2)(12,14)(17,20)(11,11)(14,16)(15,17)
(17,19)(6,9.3)(13,14)(21,22)(29,31.2)(12,16)(20,24)(12,12)(14,14)(13,17)
(17,19)(6,9.3)(13,14)(21,22)(29,31.2)(12,16)(20,24)(12,12)(14,14)(13,15)
(17,18)(9,9.3)(13,14)(22,24)(28,29)(13,19)(20,23)(11,13)(14,15)(15,17)
(17,18)(9,9.3)(13,14)(22,24)(28,29)(13,19)(17,23)(11,13)(14,15)(15,17)
(17,18)(9,9.3)(14,14)(22,23)(30,30)(14,18)(18,20)(9,12)(13,15)(16,19)
(17,18)(9,9.3)(14,14)(22,23)(30,30)(14,18)(18,20)(9,12)(13,15)(15,16)
(18,18)(9,9.3)(12,15)(18,24)(29,30)(13,16)(20,24)(9,11)(13,15)(15,16)
(18,18)(9,9.3)(12,15)(18,24)(29,30)(13,16)(20,20)(9,11)(13,15)(15,16)
(17,17)(8,9.3)(13,14)(21,23)(28,30)(12,18)(17,24)(12,13)(14,14)(15,17)
(17,17)(6,9.3)(13,14)(21,23)(28,30)(12,18)(17,24)(12,13)(14,14)(15,17)
(14,17)(6,9)(13,13)(21,23)(29,29)(17,17)(16,25)(8,11)(13,13)(15,17)
(14,14)(6,9)(13,13)(21,23)(29,29)(17,17)(16,25)(8,11)(13,13)(15,17)
(17,18)(6,6)(14,15)(19,19)(30,31)(14,18)(20,24)(11,13)(12,14)(16,18)
(17,18)(6,6)(14,15)(19,19)(28,30)(14,18)(20,24)(11,13)(12,14)(16,18)
(14,19)(6,9)(12,13)(21,25)(28,32.2)(15,17)(18,22)(11,12)(12,13)(15,15)
(14,19)(6,9)(12,13)(21,25)(28,32.2)(13,17)(18,22)(11,12)(12,13)(15,15)
(18,19)(7,9.3)(13,16)(21,22)(28,30)(14,15)(20,23)(9,12)(14,14)(15,16)
(17,18)(7,9.3)(13,16)(21,22)(28,30)(14,15)(20,23)(9,12)(14,14)(15,16)
(15,17)(7,9)(12,13)(21,22)(28,30)(16,16)(19,20)(12,12)(14,14)(14,16)
(15,17)(7,9)(12,13)(21,22)(28,30)(16,16)(16,19)(12,12)(14,14)(14,16)
(17,21)(6,9.3)(12,14)(19,22)(28,32.2)(12,14)(19,20)(11,12)(14,15)(13,16)
(17,21)(6,9.3)(12,14)(19,22)(28,32.2)(12,14)(19,20)(9,11)(14,15)(13,16)
(14,19)(7,9.3)(13,13)(20,20)(29,31)(16,16)(20,25)(11,13)(12,15)(14,14)
(14,19)(7,9.3)(13,13)(20,20)(29,31)(16,16)(17,20)(11,11)(12,15)(14,14)
And for other combined match counts for 10,096 runs
11 alleles,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
195,399,478,306,228,105,40,22
and the end-over-end for 11 to 18
152,276,338,519,187,102,41,12
The way forward,next week ,will have to be more generations (but from
preliminary study beyond 6 generations there is probably too much dilution.
Or as origionally hypothetised placing these 'families' in a surrounding sea of
families from which to randomly choose mates. Too few families and not
representative and too many then effectively back to totally random
externals. Anyone any ideas what a representative number of surrounding
familes would be ?. All contributions would be one way ,from external to
internal, rather than the real situation which would be 2 way ,mutually
reinforcing co-ancestry. For the moment i think i will try 20 external
families . Generating 20 of these families as in the 1000/1024 structure
and then randomly selecting from the 20 to produce my array of externals
to call on instead of the truly random array for further processing .
Macros as files dnas.htm,dnas2.htm and dnas3.htm on URL below.
I could not understand why I was not picking
up sibling matches.
The answer is a major error in my routine. Each child
was the offspring of one parent and a random mate each time
not 3 offspring of the same pair of parents.
Ignore the previous versions of dnas2.htm and dnas3.htm
and previous kin results.
Now in a 7 minute run of 100 x 729 kin there was 3 separate
20 digit matches (repeated of course in the end-over-end matching)
Also 28 x 19 digit matches.
The next is of course - how many runs to pick up a
non-sibling match.
2000 run gave 50pairs x 20 digit matches - all siblings.
Probably generally valid for brothers or sisters.
So for 2000 x 243 sets of 3 siblings then 50 pairs
of matches. So about one in 30,000 for 1.5 m population.
Of more interest is the non-sibling situation.
For same 2000 run of 729 profiles each,14 or less
digit matches not recorded (straight 10 digit
match preliminary not end-over-end routine added this time)
15 out of 20 digits matched - 37 pairs of 'cousins'
16 - 11 pairs
17 - 3 pairs
18 - 1 pair
So approx double these figures for end-over-end
and halve for same sex plus more not trapped matches.
All for totally random external input so next week
20 extended families (each with random external input)
randomly chosen to 'mate'
with the core family over 6 generations
I slightly adapted the macro to include parents
in with children before match checking.
For a 1000 run produced 27x 20 digit matches
all matching siblings or uncles (siblings in previous
generation)
50x 19 digit matches again no non-siblings
135x 18 digit matches -not checked for sibling /non sibling
Over the weekend arrived at a working macro for 20
founding families to feed into the core family.
Disappointing results for non-sib matches
100 times repeated for 20 founder families (fresh set each time)
taking about an hour
number of sibling matches for
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
0,5,7,25,66,56,73,31,9,1
and non sib matches for
12,13,14,15 'alleles'
1,2,2,1
So reduced down to 100 repeats of 4 founder families
sibling matches
0,8,15,25,67,94,65,29,7,3
non-sibs on
12,13,14,15
4,3,1,1
So reduced to just 2 families
sibling m
0,2,10,28,75,89,92,52,16,3
non-sibs on
12,13,14,15,16
1,3,1,2,1
Then reduced to just one external family
sibs
4,7,15,52,105,122,96,50,21,1
non-sibs on
11,12,13,14,15,16,17
2,7,7,7,2,1,3
Then returning to 20 families and a 3 hour 300 run
sibs
4,10,33,85,190,203,177,91,28,3
non sibs matches on
11,12,13,14,15,16
4,6,3,2,0,1
To push the non sib count to include 1 x 20 match
would probably need a run of more than 90 hours
at this rate
The above macro now as file dnas4.htm on URL below
I've done spot checks of 'individuals' in this
macro and found no errors so I think i will
return to random external input to the one
family and increase from 5 to 6 ,7 or 8 generations
and see what happens
